NEW YORK (Reuters) – This winter is forecast to bring sudden bouts of extreme cold to Texas that could test the state’s electric grid in early 2025, the grid operator’s chief meteorologist said on Tuesday, reviving memories of crippling Storm Uri four years ago.
“We’re in a pattern that supports something like a Uri this winter,” Chris Coleman, chief meteorologist at the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, said during an ERCOT board meeting. “The more I look at this winter, the more cold potential I see.”
Storm Uri caused blackouts to millions of homes and businesses in Texas and led to the deaths of more than 240 people. The power crisis also prompted Texas to begin overhauling its grid to increase reliability.
Coleman cited factors including ocean and atmospheric patterns that point to winter weather similar to early 2021.
As winter weather becomes more extreme, demand on Texas’ grid is rising. On Jan. 16, Texas saw its biggest winter spike in demand, with a peak of more than 78,400 megawatts.
Five of the last eight winters in Texas saw severe cold periods while in the previous 25 years, only three winters logged similar extreme cold bouts, Coleman said.
While spikes in cold weather are increasing in Texas, average winter temperatures are generally warmer, Coleman said. Last winter was the 11th warmest since 1895, according to data collected since that year.
