Investing.com — Oil prices jumped Thursday, riding on a wave of risk-on sentiment as the Federal Reserve’s outsized interest rate cut on Wednesday eased worries that a slowing US economy would further dent crude demand.
At 2:06 p.m. ET (1906 GMT), rose 1.6% to $74.80 a barrel and rose 1.8% to $71.12 a barrel.
Jobless claims rise by less than expected
The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits rose by less than anticipated last week, with coming in at 219,000 in the week ended on Sept. 14, compared with an upwardly revised 231,000 in the prior week.
Economists had forecast a consensus figure of 230,000.
This figure was better than expected, and has allayed to a degree concerns over the health of the US economy, particularly after the Federal Reserve started its latest rate-cutting cycle on Wednesday, trimming interest rates for the first time since March 2020 by a hefty 50 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5%.
While lower rates usually bode well for economic activity, the Fed’s aggressive cut sparked some concerns over a potential slowdown in economic growth.
While Fed Chair Jerome Powell helped soothe some of these concerns, he also said that the Fed had no intention of returning to an era of ultra-low interest rates, and that the central bank’s neutral rate was likely to be much higher than seen in the past.
His comments indicated that while interest rates will fall in the near-term, the Fed was likely to keep rates higher in the medium-to-long term.
US inventories fall, but product stockpiles up
Government data released on Wednesday showed a bigger-than-expected, 1.63 million barrel draw in .
While the draw was much bigger than expectations for a draw of 0.2 mb, it was also accompanied by builds in and inventories.
The builds in product inventories sparked increased concerns that U.S. fuel demand was cooling as the travel-heavy summer season wound to a close.
Looking ahead, some expect further draws in domestic crude stocks as exports reaccelerate.
“We look for a significant rebound in exports across crude and products this week. Among products, our preliminary expectations point to draws in gasoline (-1.5 MM BBL) and distillate (-3.7 MM BBL) with a build in jet (+0.5 MM BBL),” Macquarie said in a recent note.
Crude deficit could boost Brent
Still, prices could be bolstered in the near-term by demand possibly outstripping supply in the fourth quarter, according to analysts at Citi.
A reported decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to delay the beginning of a tapering in voluntary output cuts, along with ongoing supply losses in Libya, is predicted to contribute to a oil market deficit of around 0.4 million barrels per day in the final three months of 2024, the Citi analysts said.
They added that such a trend could offer some temporary support to Brent “in the $70 to $75 per barrel range.”
Meanwhile, the benchmark could be further boosted by a potential rebound in recently tepid demand from top oil importer China, the analysts said.
But they flagged that they still anticipate “renewed price weakness” in 2025, with Brent on a path to $60 per barrel due to an impending surplus of one million barrels per day.
(Peter Nurse, Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)
